Deep Florida Derby Has Trainers In The Know

There is no question the Florida Derby (gr. 1) Sunday at Gulfstream Park is the deepest prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands so far this year. And Sandra Bullock is more popular than Jesse James. The race has two horses that are ranked in the top five of most Derby watch lists this Spring, two other top ten candidates and four new comers to the Triple Crown trail including a monkey wrench. The eventual winner is the mystery.

The favorite is Soldat, a good looking son of War Front who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26. Although War Front was a sprinter and Soldat’s grandsire, Rubiano, was a champion sprinter, Soldat has had little trouble winning his two previous starts this year, both at the Florida Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles. Befor the Fountain of Youth, Soldat also won a 9 furlong allowance race in February by more than 10-1/2 lengths.

Soldat has used his speedy genetics to win both races from gate to wire, making one think jockey Alan Garcia might employ the same tactics in the Florida Derby. However, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (photo right) calls the game plan and it is doubtful he wants Soldat to race to the front Sunday. “He does everything right,” McLaughlin said on Televison Games Network. “The only thing I’d like to change is for him to get some dirt in his face. Whether it be in the Florida Derby or in the morning, we might do both. But on the first Saturday in May, you don’t want to be on the lead.”

Soldat has already fulfilled his morning “dirt in the face” requirement, beginning his Mar. 20 five furlong work behind two runners from the McLaughlin stable before accelerating around them to complete the assigned task. The grimy trip didn’t seem to bother Soldat much as he recorded a bullet work in 1:00 3/5, the fastest of 29 five-eighths of a mile works at Palm Meadows that morning. Odds are that McLaughlin wants to fulfill the other “dirt in the face” requirement Sunday.

Regardless of McLaughlin’s strategy, trainer Rick Dutrow looks to have his sights on the early lead in the Florida Derby with his late entrant Flashpoint. Like Soldat, Flashpoint is by a young sire who was successful on the track as a sprinter. His sire Pomeroy won the King’s Bishop and Kelso Handicap, both grade 1 races at seven furlongs in New York. Unlike Soldat, however, Flashpoint has never been further than the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes, a grade 2 race on Feb. 26 he won by seven and a half lengths.

Flashpoint breaks from the outside post in the eight-horse field, but he figures to the first leader in the Florida Derby and perhaps putting McLaughlin at some ease for the moment. Should Soldat also want the lead as his past performances may indicate, that would be the wrench du monkey previously mentioned.

A trainer that will be rooting for Soldat and Flashpoint to battle each early, is two-time Kentucky Derby winning condition Nick Zito, who saddles 2-1 second choice Dialed In. Considered among the future book favorites to win in Kentucky, the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft is a classic late closer. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs coming from last in a 12-horse field and then won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park coming from last, ten lengths off the lead.

Scheduling challenges and a need to expand out to nine furlongs, forced Zito to run Dialed In against older horses in a Mar. 6 optional claiming. A slow pace in that race also presented a challenge for the young closer and jockey Julien Laparoux, but they rallied to finish second to remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Having some difficulty staying on the Derby track is To Honor and Serve who finished a tired looking third behind Soldat In the Fountain of Youth. Coming from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (photo left) somewhat eases those concerns for To Honor and Serve fans, but that does not reduce the necessity of a much improved performance in the Florida Derby in order to stay the Kentucky course.

If the Derby path had somehow narrowed to a straight line down the stretch of Aqueduct’s inner track on March 5, it is uncertain if Stay Thirsty would still be aboard. But the Derby path didn’t constrict and Stay Thirsty remains pointed toward Kentucky.

Although Stay Thirsty won the grade 3 Gotham Stakes that day, he looked less than professional in doing so. That day he broke poorly but jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to eventuall place him into contention. Turning for home, Stay Thirsty veered in without impeding another horse before then changing leads a few times. But his talent endurred and Stay Thirsty drew off to win the Gotham by just over three lengths.

It was the first start of the year for Stay Thirsty, so trainer Todd Pletcher looked at the Gotham with a glass half full attitude - seeing the room for improvement in his young son of Bernadini. He will put blinkers on Stay Thirsty in the Florida Derby to help him focus and seems confident he’ll see a smarter Stay Thirsty this time.

Rounding out the Florida Derby are Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford, all at 20-1 and none of which are stakes winners.

There have been eleven Kentucky Derby winners who ran in the Florida Derby without winning. The most recent of those was Monarchos who took the 2001 Run for the Roses after finishing second in Florida. Before that, both Thunder Gulch (1995) and Go For Gin (’94) won Kentucky Derbies after finishing fourth in their respective Florida Derbies.

Pletcher, McLaughlin, Mott, Pletcher and Zito probably know of a few of those horses. Zito does. He trained Go For Gin. The four trainers also know their horses likely have enough graded earnings to qualify for the big prize at Churchill. And despite the $1 million purse in Florida, the riches and prestige of the Kentucky have no rival in North American horse racing – perhaps even the world.

So a loss Sunday does not present any type of third strike or punch off the proverbial trail to the Kentucky Derby. But the talent in this field in abundant and wide spread – even hidden, perhaps, in one of the three long shots. The light prep races disappeared with the days of February and March and time is eroding the options for change as the first Saturday in May nears.

Still the Florida Derby is not life or death. But a bad race by any of the promising contenders will surely cause less than comfortable illness for the previously hopeful connections. You can bet the four trainers know that too.

Florida Win Is No Requisite For Kentucky Fame

This Sunday, one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) will be run in the grade 1 Florida Derby. Not only does the $1 million purse provide plenty of incentive to those connections needing graded stakes money to qualify their colt for the Run for the Roses, but the 1-1/8 distance, calendar placement and tradition also adds to the races allure.

Run just five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, this Florida Derby looks to have one of the deepest fields the race has offered in some time. Probable starters Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are all among leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with all appearing in Paulick Report’s Vinery LTD Derby Index, a top ten ranking of Kentucky Derby contenders as ranked by 28 turf writers and thoroughbred racing bloggers throughout North America. Soldat is ranked second behind leader Uncle Mo with Dialed In tallying the third most votes. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in the weekly poll.

Although Soldat, with his $510,000 in graded stakes earnings, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby should he make it there, Stay Thirsty ($260,000), To Honor and Serve ($250,000) and Dialed In ($240,000) appear not to need more than a $50,000 fourth-place Florida Derby check that push them near the $300,000 mark believed to safely be enough to stamp a ticket to Louisville, Kentucky. But one can rest assured that the owners, trainers and jockeys in this race are thinking nothing short of the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Florida Derby.

After all, since the Florida Derby was first run in 1953, ten winners have gone to take the Kentucky Derby including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (’06), Monarchos (‘01), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (’90), Swale (’84), Spectacular Bid (’79), Forward Pass (’68), Northern Dancer (’64), Carry Back (’61) and Needles in 1956 (photo above). Of those, however, only Big Brown, Barbaro and Needles went directly from the Florida Derby to Kentucky.

Spectacular Bid, Forward Pass and Northern Dancer (photo left) all won the Bluegrass Stakes between their Florida and Kentucky victories and Tim Tam won the Derby Trial. Swale, Unbridled and Thunder Gulch also went to Lexington for the Blue Grass before the Derby, but finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Keeneland’s Bluegrass.

Monarchos, and Carry Back went to Aqueduct in New York to finish second in the Wood Memorial before going to Kentucky for their post race blanket of roses.

With the quality of the 2011 Florida Derby as high and deep as it is, one might also think a Florida Derby might be a must for Kentucky glory. However, nine Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby but failed to win. Strike The Gold (’91), Cannonade (’74) and Venetian Way (’60) finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Kentucky. Foolish Pleasure (’75) and Iron Liege (’57) were third, while Go For Gin (’94) and Kaui King (’66) were both unplaced in Florida before their historical wins in Kentucky.

With five weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby on May 7, the pressure is surely beginning to mount in the shed rows of those with aspirations of taking the coveted race so there is no need to heap on additional albatross of a must win in Florida Sunday. Florida Derby probables Bowman’s Causeway, Arch Traveler and perhaps Flashpoint need the $600,000 first-place check for the needed graded earnings for Derby consideration. But for Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, the additional burden of a must-win is unnecessary.

That is unlikely to make much difference for their connections, however. Urgency is not a necessary ingredient for determination. And few run horse races to finish second.

Fountain of Youth Is Next Step To Maturity On Derby Trail

The first trimester of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brand (gr. 1) season of preparation ends this weekend with the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park in the biggest spotlight. The $400,000, 1-1/8 race for 3-year-olds will be the last major race along the Triple Crown trail for the month of February with now only March and April before the Run for the Roses in May.

There is also the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise in Phoenix, Arizona and the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulstream Park this weekend, but none are expected to have the impact on the Derby like the Fountain of Youth field.

There have been a number of notable Derby prep races in February and most were won by respectful but short of awe inspiring winners. Brethren looked very good while winning the Sam F. Davis (gr. 3) at Tampa Bay Downs, but the Todd Pletcher trainee fell short of impressing the speed figure and numbers handicappers in that race. Dialed In had a nice come from-behind win in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Gulfstream Park and has the benefit of trainer Nick Zito. But the Mineshaft colt missed this weekend’s Fountain of Youth which at least raises some doubts.

Mucho Macho Man finished fourth behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull then came back to take the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds. Although the Risen Star wasn’t that deep of a field, Mucho Macho Man seems to be moving in the right direction - and improvement this time of year is a valuable commodity for a 3-year-old thoroughbred.

Further West, trainer Bob Baffert unleashed The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente Stakes (gr. 3) in February, and again, it was a solid performance. But like Dialed In, Baffert may not have as many opportunities as may like to prepare for the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby. The grade 3 Sunland Derby Mar. 27 or the Mar. 19 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas are possibilities.

This is no knock on the winner’s of the these graded races in February, but the reality is that of those four races only the Holy Bull and San Vincente have had winners go on to also take the Derby. In 1994 Go For Gin won both the Holy Bull and Kentucky Derby and Barbaro won both races in 2006. No horse has ever won both the Risen Star and the Derby nor the Sam Davis and Derby. Three horses have taken the Derby and San Vincente, but one has to go back to Silver Charm in 1997 to find the most recent. The other two were 30 and 40 years previous to Silver Charm in Lucky Debonair in 1965 and Swaps in 1955.

While there has not been a superstar performance among the sophomores this year, many of more anticipated contenders have yet to make a stakes appearance including 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo – set for a March 12 race in either the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream or the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs the same day.

The other 3-year-old near the top of most Derby lists yet to debut this year is To Honor and Serve, winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. 2) (video below) and Nashua Stakes (gr. 2) last year. But To Honor and Serve will be making his first start in nearly 90 days this weekend as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has expressed little concern however, saying To Honor and Serve may be his best chance to win the Kentucky Derby and has seemed pleased with the colts winter training regime in Florida.

The Fountain of Youth will also be the second start of the year for Soldat, a winner of an 1-1/8 allowance race at Gulfstream Park by more than 10 lengths Jan. 21. Last year Soldat concluded the year by finishing second behind Pluck in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. 2T) after winning the grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga last summer, also on grass. But trainer Kiaran McLaughlin had to like what he saw when Soldat seemed to even excel on dirt in that recent allowance win. With little doubt Soldat likes the Gulfstream main track at least.

Also interesting about Soldat is his pedigree. He is by War Front, who was more of a sprinter as a race horse but who also won the minor Princelet Stakes at Belmont Park at 1-1/16 miles. Also known as a sire of sprinters, War Front has San Vincente Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor on the Triple Crown trail with trainer Bob Baffert in Southern California as well.

Gourmet Dinner is another making his second start of 2011 after finishing third behind winner Dialed In and runner-up Sweet Ducky in the Holy Bull. However, in the Holy Bull, Gourmet Dinner finished ahead of Mucho Macho Man in fourth. Mucho Mach Man of course, won his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds Feb. 19. Trainer Steve Stanbridge has also made a rider change for the son of Trippi, giving the reins aboard Gourmet Dinner to Ramon Dominguez.

Among other Fountain Youth starters is the trio of Shakleford, Casper’s Touch and El Grayling, the top three finishers in a Feb. 5 allowance race at Gulfstream Park, also at the 1-1/8 mile distance. While Shackleford was the winner, Casper’s Touch was closing second after overcoming plenty of trouble in that race.

Like the Holy Bull Stakes, the Fountain of Youth has seen only two of it’s winners go on to take the Derby in Kentucky. Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Thunder Gulch in 1995 both won the Fountain of Youth on their way to the Derby winner’s circle.

It would be difficult to be certain that this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will be running in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Saturday, but it is certainly the most serious Derby prep to date and this field has it's share of potential that previous runnings may not have had. And this time of year, potential is just what we'll be looking for.