Havre de Grace Was Tops In A Difficult Year

It has been a rough year for the Horse of the Year award. So troubled has the year been for those horses pursuing the golden Eclipse award, that I have pondered the dilemma for more than a week since the completion of the Breeders’ Cup, and still, I am not adamant about my selection.

For disclosure, I do not vote for Horse of the Year. That honor has been bestowed upon the folks at Daily Racing Form and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. But if I did have a vote this year, I would approach it the following way.

It would be difficult to give the award to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer (photo right). His only victory this year other than the Classic came in the $60,000 One Count Stakes at Belmont Park in May. No matter the significance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it needs a little more help than the One Count Stakes to confirm a Horse of the Year.

Others under consideration had difficult days at the Breeders’ Cup that may have eliminated them from Horse of the Year. The Breeders' Cup is billed as the World Championship after all.

Goldikova was attempting an unprecedented fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile hoping to add to her record three straight, but was unable to overcome a trip filled with traffic difficulties this and finished third. And one third place finish in American does not a Horse of the Year make.

Classic favorite Flat Out went into the Breeders’ Cup off of a win in the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, two seconds in the Woodward and Whitney, Saratoga’s two main events for older horses, and third in the grade 2 Suburban Handicap at Belmont in July. Flat Out also had one of the better human interest stories this year in 70-year-old trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey, but a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic compromised the Horse of the Year chances for Flat Out.

Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom should also be considered. Although Animal Kingdom has not run since finishing sixth in the Belmont Stakes June 11, the Kentucky is certainly the most noteworthy race in America and its winner she be duly noted.

There is also some precedent for Animal Kingdom being named Horse of the Year – at least from a chronological standpoint. In 1999, Cat Thief won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at nearly 20-to-1 odds over favored Behrens in seventh. That year Charismatic was named Horse of the Year after being injured in the Belmont Stakes and not running thereafter. Like Animal Kingdom, Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby but unlike Animal Kingdom, also had a victory in the Preakness and in the grade 2 Lexington. Animal Kingdom has the grade 2 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes win to match Charasmatic's Lexington and of course the Kentucky Derby, but no Preakness.

Stay Thirsty is another from the 3-year-old ranks that should get some attention from the Horse of the Year voters. He has three graded stakes wins this year in the Travers (gr. 1), Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Gotham Stakes (gr. 3). Hurting him, however, was his performance in the Kentucky Derby (12th) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (11th).

Game On Dude deserves consideration from Horse of the Year voters based on his two grade 1 victories this year in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and the Goodwood Stakes, again at Santa Anita, in October. He was also second in the grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup this summer but probably still needed to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic to solidify the Horse of the Year award. Zenyatta can run second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and be named Horse of the Year. But can Game On Dude do it? I’m not so sure.

Having the best record in the most graded stakes this year was the filly Havre de Grace (photo left). She won five of seven starts in 2012, three of which were grade 1 including a win over older males in the Woodward. Her fourth-place finish in the Classic and the fact that four of her five wins came against fillies and mares will be her Achilles heel among Eclipse voters.

Unlike Favorite Trick in 1997 and Secretariat in 1972, the 2012 Horse of the Year is not likely to come from the 2-year-old ranks. Like Favorite Trick, Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Hansen finished the year undefeated, but that was only Hansen’s third start of the year and first in graded stakes company. Hansen’s other victories, while impressive with 12-1/4 and 12-1/4 winning margins, came in the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile and a maiden race, both at Turfway Park.

Juvenile Favorite Union Rags has wins in the grade 2 Saratoga Special and grade 1 Champagne Stakes but very much needed to win the Juvenile in order to be considered for Horse of the Year. Instead, a second place keeps him in contention for divisional honors, but probably not for Horse of the Year.

Maybe the Horse of the Year title will go to a horse that did not run in the Breeders’ Cup. Acclamation finished 2012 with five consecutive wins in graded stakes including three grade 1 wins – something only he has accomplished this year. His grade 1 victories came in the Charlie Whittingham Stakes at Hollywood Park and the Eddie Read and Pacific Classic at Del Mar. A tenth-place finish in the grade 3 Charles Town Classic and no appearance in the Breeders’ Cup will be the hurdles facing Acclamation with voters. They will just have to decide what is the biggest detriment to a Horse of the Year - losing in the Breeders’ Cup or not running at all.

It has been a difficult year for racing stars. Again the Kentucky Derby has failed to win another race after the Run for the Roses and a long shot takes the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont winner Ruler On Ice also finished the year with no victories after their trips to the winners’ circle in their respective Triple Crown races.

I don’t have a vote in the Eclipse Awards, but for records’ sake, Havre de Grace deserves to become the third consecutive female to be named Horse of the Year in a close call over Acclamation. Helping Havre de Grace is her appearance at five different tracks this year in four different states. Acclamation raced at four tracks in two states. Havre de Grace raced primarily against females while Acclamation won most of his races on the grass. However, both have grade 1 wins against older male horses on dirt around two turns. Neither Acclamation nor Havre de Grace won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it has been four years since Curlin won the Classic and the Horse of the year.

It is not an easy year to vote for Horse of the Year, but it should again go to another female. She may not be as accomplished at her most recent predecessors, but seldom ever have been. What matters is that Havre de Grace had the best year of any thoroughbred this year.

And for that, Havre de Grace should be honored with golden Eclipse Award for a rich and accomplished year.

Uncle Mo Shadow Will Not Cast Over Stay Thirsty Stud Career

In what might be the greatest revenge in the stallion community since the success of Alydar over Affirmed, Stay Thirsty appears destined to do the same to Uncle Mo. The Uncle Mo/Stay Thirsty rivalry on the track does not compare to the battle tested years Affirmed and Alydar went at each other. Alydar and Affirmed (photo right) met five times as 2-year-olds and four more times at age three. Affirmed won seven times including the epic Triple Crown of 1978; and Alydar won two, including their last meeting in the 1978 Travers when he won through the disqualification of Affirmed.

At stud, Alydar was a major success producing Belmont winner Easy Goer and Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Alysheba among his get. He was the leading sire in North America in 1990, sire of 10 champions and his runners earned more than $24 million. Affirmed became known more as a producer of turf runners, with perhaps his best runners being the multiple grass champion filly Flawlessly; and Arlington Million winner The Tin Man. Affirmed had similar numbers as Alydar with 9 champions, but Alydar’s stallion career ended at the peak of his productivity when he mysteriously suffered a shattered leg while in his stall and had to be euthanized.

Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo met only twice on the track, both in Breeders’ Cup races at Churchill Downs. Last year, Stay Thirsty was fifth to Uncle Mo’s victory in the Juvenile. This year Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty finished 10th and 11th respectively in the Classic. So they really didn’t have much of a rivalry on the track.

But there was a rivalry for recognition between the two, especially since both came from the same shed row of trainer Todd Pletcher and raced for outgoing owner Mike Repole. And no matter what he did, Stay Thirsty seem to ever remain in the shadow of his stable mate Uncle Mo.

Uncle Mo was everybody’s all-everything from the time he broke his maiden by 14-1/2 lengths at Saratoga through his undefeated championship season and being the winter racebook favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, during his 2-year-old seaso, Stay Thirsty had finished second to Boys At Toscanova in the Hopeful Stakes after breaking also breaking his maiden at Saratoga, but only by five lengths. Stay Thirsty went into the Juvenile as an anonymous 13-to-1 shot and came out as a fifth-place whatchmacallit.

Things looked up for Stay Thirsty (photo left) after winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in early March, but after a seventh-place finish in the Florida Derby and a 12th in the Kentucky Derby, Stay Thirsty was moving ever closer to staying home. A second-place finish to Ruler on Ice in the Belmont Stakes awoke some, but not enough to make Stay Thirsty the favorite in his next start, the grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. Stay Thirsty won the Jim Dandy impressively by four lengths and went to the Travers as the favorite, but only by one dime to the dollar more popular. Stay Thirsty was 2.5-to-1 in the Jim Dandy and the 2.4-to-1 favorite in the Travers.

As if aware of the slight, Stay Thirsty galloped around the Saratoga oval and won the Travers nearly gate-to-wire and suddenly he was atop the 3-year-old class looking down. In his first test against older horses in the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Stay Thirsty was a good third behind eventual Classic winner Drosselmeyer and Classic favorite Flat Out. He looked primed to be competitive and possibly be among the favorites for the Classic.

But earlier that same day at Belmont, Uncle Mo had turned heads by winning the grade 1 Kelso Mile in only his second race after being sidelined and missing the Triple Crown. And during the weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Uncle Mo again took the spotlight from Stay Thirsty.

Owner Mike Repole decided to run Uncle Mo in the Classic instead of the Dirt Mile and before the Classic, Uncle Mo would go off at 5-to-1 odds compared to Stay Thirsty back in double digits at 11-to-1.

Uncle Mo will have a year to get the jump on Stay Thirsty in the breeding shed, but I doubt it will make much of a difference.

Uncle Mo begins his stallion career as the grandson of In Excess (Ire), one of the top stallions in California before being pensioned in July. Stay Thirsty, who will race at age four according to his Facebook page, will begin his stallion career next year as the grandson of A.P. Indy, one of the top stallions of his generation.

Uncle Mo is by Indian Charlie, whose first runners hit the track in 2002 and who stood last year at Airdrie Stud in Midway, Kentucky for $70,000. On the track, Indian Charlie’s biggest win came in the 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby. As one might expect from his racing career, Indian Charlie has had a difficult time producing any runners that could go to the next level at 1-1/4 miles.

Stay Thirsty is by Bernardini, winner of the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup - two of which are at the classic distance of 1-1/4 miles. After his first crop hit the track this year as 3-year-olds with Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve among them, Bernardini’s fee has been raised to $150,000 by Darley Stud in Lexington, Kentucky.

Uncle Mo has the 2-year-old championship but in the end, Stay Thirsty has something much more important to breeders’, a grade 1 win at 10 furlongs (1-1/4 miles). In fact, Uncle Mo never won at 1-1/8 miles, finishing third in the Wood Memorial in his only attempt at that distance. Stay Thirsty won the 9 furlong Jim Dandy and 1-1/4 mile Travers.

Americans are known to breed for speed and Uncle Mo is well armed with pedigree and past performances to produce that in his runners.

But Americans still pay for distance. And Stay Thirsty will be much more likely to produce winners who can compete at the Classic distance. And likely to some day emerge from the Shadow of Uncle Mo and shine as if he was Alydar himself.

Process of Elimination Produces Classic Winner

There is money to be made betting on the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year.

The large 13-horse field will create large pools and Uncle Mo, the popular Champion 2-Year-Old Male and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner from last year, is the very beatable morning line favorite at 5-2. Uncle Mo is by the respected sire Indian Charlie who commands a $70,000 fee from his home at Airdre Stud in Midway, Kentucky. Since his first crop hit the track in 2002, Indian Charlie has produced more than 1,000 winners and more than 100 stakes wins. Along with Uncle Mo, Indian Charlie’s daughters Fleet Indian and Indian Blessing were also champions. Of the three, however, only Fleet Indian won at the Classic distance of 10 furlongs (1.25 miles). She won both the Personal Ensign Stakes in New York and the Delaware Handicap, both at 1-1/4 miles.

Indian Charlie’s nine furlong stigma is further illustrated by his racing career. After winning the prestigious 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby, he finished third to Real Quiet in the Derby. The comment in the Daily Racing Form official chart for Indian Charlie, “held on well to the final furlong then weakened.” In other words, at nine furlongs Indian Charlie was a world beater. But between that last green and white pole and the finish line of a 1-1/4 race, folks from episode one of Biggest Loser were faster.

Combine his distance challenged genetics with his preparation for the Classic in the one mile Kelso Handic ap Oct. 1 at Belmont, and Uncle Mo gets cut from my list of top contenders. Be mindful that Uncle Mo should be the one to catch turning for home and should keep that lead deep into the stretch. So don’t leave him out of any exotic tickets you are considering.
Havre de Grace, the popular 4-year-old filly that already defeated older males this year in the Woodward Stakes, also gets crossed off my Classic list. Should she prove me wrong and win the Classic, Havre de Grace should become the third consecutive female Horse of the Year.

But questions were raised about her training when she abruptly stopped after a five furlong work in 1:02 flat Monday at Churchill. A week earlier at Keeneland, Havre de Grace put in a quick five furlong work over their polytrack, stopping the clock in :58.3. Everything else on her past performances places her among my top choices, but the quick stop in the work is enough of a red flag in a race as competitive as this Classic.

Ruler On Ice, Ice Box, Rattlesnake Bridge and Headache are all long shots, each listed at 30-1 in the morning line. The handicapping paradox however, is that these four represent the only closers in this year’s Classic. Five of the seven Breeders’ Cup Classic winners at Churchill Downs have come from well off the pace including last year’s winner Blame. Closers are also known to have done well in the Kentucky Derby in recent years, giving additional credence to assumption.

It is always difficult to exclude trainer Nick Zito, but his Ice Box has been defeated by nearly 30 lengths in his last two races. History shows that horses need to come into the Classic off of a much better efforts than that. No horse has won the Classic without finishing first, second or third in their final start before the Classic. Rattlesnake Bridge, while third in the Pennsylvania Derby last out behind To Honor and Serve and Ruler On Ice, has never hit triple digit Beyer numbers which makes it difficult to imagine him hitting that big race Saturday. Headache is also speed figure challenged but he has three career wins at Churchill Downs. Ruler On Ice has the Belmont Stakes on his resume so distance should not be a challenge for him and his performance in the Pennsylvania Derby last race was strong.

Game On Dude, winner of the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap in March and the Goodwood at 1-1/8 miles in October, has had a difficult time putting together two consecutive good starts. He did win an Optional Claiming before winning the Santa Anita Handicap, but failed to win in the next four starts until the Goodwood. A close second in the Hollywood Gold Cup and a fourth in the Pacific Classic were among those losses, but he looks to need to take a step up from even his career best to win Saturday.

Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve were both on the road to the Kentucky Derby earlier this year but only Stay Thirsty made it. Unfortunately, he finished 12th. In fact, Stay Thirsty has had two starts at Churchill, neither with much success with a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year under the twin spires. Stay Thirsty skipped the Preakness, returned in the Belmont to finish second to Ruler on Ice and eventually became the star 3-year-old of the summer. After two big wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers, he was a solid third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup behind Classic foes Flat Out and Drosselmeyer.
To Honor and Serve also comes into the Classic on a two-race winning streak, taking the Pennsylvania Derby in his last race winning at optional claiming race against older horses at Saratoga before that.

However, neither Stay Thirsty nor To Honor and Serve look quite exceptional enough to win the Classic as 3-year-olds.

The three older horses that will be getting plenty of support will be European invader So You Think (NZ); and Flat Out and Drosselmeyer, the top two finishers in the Jockey Club Gold Cup respectively. Euros, Asians have had little success in the Classic, save for Raven’s Pass winning over Santa Anita’s artificial surface in 2008.

That leaves Flat Out and Drosselmeyer, two older horses that have been turning heads during morning training hours. Not so much that they have been blazing bullet works back and forth, but reports are that both are training with ease and aggressiveness. Flat Out and trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey provide a good story, but its performance that attracts wagers and Flat Out has shown no indication that the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a peak performance.

Flat Out looks to be sharper than Drosselmeyer coming into the Classic, but Drosselmeyer has the flexibility to lay further off the pace and make that big run that can be so important down the long stretch at Churchill Downs. Somebody is going to have to catch Uncle Mo and these two are set to launch a two-pronged attack.

At the wire in the Classic, Flat Out will have the edge over Drosselmeyer with Uncle Mo in third. The long shot with the best chance after Drosselmey is Ruler On Ice.


That leaves, So You Think (NZ), the second choice in the morning line at 5-1, Flat Out (6-1), Game on Dude (10-1), Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve both at 12-1 and Drosselmeyer at 15-1, still left for Classic consideration.

As I said before, there’s money to be made in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year.

Let's Play!

With so many great races this weekend from Santa Anita to New York and Indiana in between, there is so much that can be written. So instead of spinning some epic saga… let’s pick some winners. The National Football League has their Play 60 program to encourage kids to exercise. The weekend horse racing has Play Saturday for adults.

Indiana Derby (gr. 2), Hoosier Park, 3-year-olds, 1-1/16 miles, $500,000
Post Time 6:15 pm EDT Saturday

Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) winner Shackleford stands on the Indiana Derby program page as the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, coupled with stable mate Friends Place as part of the Dale Romans (photo right)-trained entry. This will be the second consecutive year the Preakness winner has come to Anderson, Indiana for the Indiana Derby as Lookin at Lucky won this race last year as part of his championship season. Hoosier Park has also been a frequent stop for Romans, who is the all-time leading stakes winning trainer at the track.

None of those accolades, trends or records will be helping Shackleford Saturday night however, as the Indiana Derby has drawn a qualified cast of eight. What seperates Shackleford from the other seven is the class in which he has competed this year. After finishing second at 68-to-1 in the Florida Derby (gr. 1), Shackled hit the Triple Crown and came out, not only with a win in the Preakness, but as only one of three horses this year to competed in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

After a short vacation, Shackleford hit the Resorts Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey where he was second to a Bob Baffert-trained Coil. Coil was a record 5th Haskell for Baffert, so the runner-up for Shackleford was no disgrace.

But the next race seemed to give an indication that the miles and competition may be taking an effect on the iron horse of the 2011 sophomore class of Thoroughbreds. After leading the Travers Stakes for the first three-quarters of a mile, Shackleford tired badly and finished second to last, more than 22 lengths behind winner Stay Thirsty.

Should that be the case and the Preakness winner has little left in the tank, the obvious choice is Caleb’s Posse, trained by Oklahoma/Texas mainstay Donnie Von Hemel. The homebred son of the $10,000 stallion Posse, has had a constitution testing campaign this year as well. Caleb’s Posse was perhaps the most impressive in his last race when he came from off the pace to sour the comeback of one-time Derby fave Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga in late August.

At one time considered a Kentucky Derby contender after finishing second in the grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park in March, Calleb’s Posse skipped the Triple Crown and has spent the year winning the grade 2 Ohio Derby at Thistledown in June and the grade 2 Amsterdam, also at Saratoga. Although the King’s Bishop and Amsterdam were seven and 6-1/2 furlongs respectively, Calleb’s Posse should have no problem with the Indiana Derby distance of 1-1/16 miles having won the Ohio Derby at the same distance of eight and one-half furlongs.

Among others to watch are 4-to-1 morning line choice Wilburn, a nice winner of the $300,000 Smarty Jones over the same surface in his last race and Populist Politics, a participating third in the super slow Super Derby (gr. 2) in his last race at Louisiana Downs Sept. 10.

Indiana Derby Picks
6 - Caleb’s Posse
4 - Populist Politcs
1 – Shackleford

The Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1), Belmont Park, 3-year-olds and older, 1-1/4 Miles, $750,000
Post Time: 5:46 pm EDT Saturday

Like the Indiana Derby, the Jockey Club Gold Cup has a morning line with solid entry as the favorite with Flat Out and Birdrun coupled as part of the Preston Farms, Inc.-owned entry at 7-to-5. Also like the Indiana Derby, the second choice in Belmont the morning line is just one tick off favoritism, in this case at 8-to-5.

While Birdrun is no slouch, having won the grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont Park in June, it appears Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott may have the Birdstone in the Jockey Club Gold Cup: Stay Thirsty likes to run on or near the lead. Flat Out, also trained by Mott, likes to come from off the pace. No other horse in the field appears likely to test Stay Thirsty on the lead and insure an honest pace. So instead of leaving it others, Moss has the speedy Birdrun in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Although Birdrun may keep Stay Thirsty from stealing the Gold Cup, his presence will not leave Stay Thirsty and jockey Javier Castellano without options. A son of 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bernadini, Stay Thirsty appears to like the lead, but need it as was the case in his victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) two months ago when he was as far back as fourth in the first half-mile.

Not only is this is the first race for Stay Thirsty against older horses, but he is the only 3-year-old among the seven entrants. It will be a whole new class of characters waiting for Stay Thirsty this time in the saddling paddock before the race.

Flat Out and Birdrun are both 5-year-old horses; A.U. Miner and Rodman are both 6-year-olds. Drosselmeyer and Ice Box, two veterans from the 2010 Triple Crown wars, are the youngsters here at age four. There’s not a gelding in the bunch.

We also know that consistency has been a rarity in both the 3-year-old and older ranks this year. That too works against Stay Thirsty who is coming off two consecutive wins. A.U. Miner is the only other Gold Cup starter to have won his last race having taken the $200,000 Greenwood Cup at Parx Racing near Philadelphia in July.

There is also that $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic elephant on the grandstand apron. Will trainer Todd Pletcher wind the strings tight on Stay Thirsty to win the $750,000 Gold Cup with nearly seven times that much sitting at Churchill Downs Nov. 6 waiting to be claimed?

Flat Out also comes out of a difficult summer also with a win in the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont then firing at both the Whitney Handicap and Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, running second in both to Tizway and the filly Havre de Grace respectively.


That leaves the door open enough for me to think that Rodman will have a big day at Belmont Park Saturday. Second to Tizway in the Metropolitan (gr. 2) at one mile in May and third behind Flat Out in the Suburban, he may have been set for a big race in the Woodward, but traffic trouble in the first turn quickly faded those hopes and he finished seventh. Rodman should improve significantly off that race.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Picks
3- Rodman
4-Stay Thirsty
5-Flat Out

The Vosburgh Invitational (gr. 1), Belmont Park, 3-year-olds and older, 6 furlongs, $350,000
Post Time: 3:57 pm EDT Saturday

I chose to handicap the Indiana Derby and the Jockey Club Gold Cup because of their popularity and probable influence on the richest horse racing in North America, the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With Havre de Grace in the Beldame Invitational (gr. 1) and Uncle Mo in the Kelso Handicap (gr. 2) in the two races preceding the Gold Cup and two obvious singles, find a horse with a price in the Vosburgh and I’ve got a Pick-4 ticket to bet. Havre de Grace is a better single than Uncle Mo in my opininion, so if one would want to spread a little in the Kelso, that might not be a bad idea.

The Vosburgh certainly has a horse to beat in Trappe Shot at 9-to-5 in the morning line, and quite frankly he does look tough having won two of his last three races, all at the Vosburgh distance of six furlongs. Second choice Big Drama (photo left) is also solid as the defending Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion which has easily won his only two races this year. He had a nice eight-month vacation from January to September, but since returning has done nothing but win the minor Whipleton Stakes at Calder in September and put in two very nice morning works. The most recent morning drill was a five furlong bullet and before that worked a four furlong breeze that was the second fastest of 75 that morning at Calder.

In trying to find something that might provide more return, Apriority peaks interest as one who likes to come from off the pace. Although his only two wins this year have come against optional claimers, the son of Grand Slam has shown he can compete at this level after a second in the Carter Handicap and fourth in the Vanderbuilt, both grade 1 races earlier this year in New York. He was also just a nose short of Aikenite from winning the seven furlong Churchill Downs (gr. 2) two starts back.

Giant Ryan will also be difficult to pass up at 12-to-1 coming off of five consecutive victories going back to an optional claiming race at Aqueduct in March. In his last race, he came from just off the pace to win the grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder in Florida. That race was just more than 60 days ago, but he has been training well in the morning coming into this race.

Vosburgh Picks
3 - Apriority
6 - Big Drama
8 - Trappe Shot

Pick 4
Race 7 - 3-5-6-8
Race 8 - 3
Race 9 - 5
Race 10 - 3-4-1

Stars Casting Healthy Glow Over Big Thoroughbred Racing Weekend

Breeders’ Cup fever will reach new heights this Saturday as Belmont Park features their Super Saturday card and Santa Anita offers five stakes with Breeders’ Cup implications during their opening weekend.

Super Saturday offers six graded stakes – five of them grade 1 – worth $2.7 million. All six of the races are “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs and will be telecast on ESPN Classic and ESPN3 from 4:30 – 7:30 pm EDT. The five grade 1s are the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup for older horses at a 1-1/4 miles, the $350,000 Beldame at 1-1/8 miles for fillies and mares, and the $350,000 Vosburg at six furlongs; all on the main track; and the $500,000 Joe Hirsch and $500,000 Flower Bowl on grass. The $200,000 Kelso at one mile is grade 2.

Saturday Santa Anita offers the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes for 2-year-olds, the $250,000 Goodwood Stakes for older horses at 1-1/8 miles; fillies and mares at 1-1/4 miles on grass in the $250,000 Yellow Ribbon presented by Emirates Airline and the $250,000 Lady’s Secret, fillies and mares at 1-1/8 miles. The $250,000 Oak Leaf (gr. 1) for 2-year-old fillies on Sunday will round out the grade 1 action at Santa Anita. All are also “Win and You’re In” races for the Breeders’ Cup.

Typically, the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont are the spot light races, even during this annually star-studded weekend. Both races are in the heavy weight division of horses racing - older horses going around two turns on the main track. It is also a division that has grown to include the sophomore males, some with Triple Crown race titles, others with credentials from other major derbies and stakes this summer.

But this weekend, both tracks need to toss their spot lights and rely on the glow that will be coming off of all the stars in these races.

The Goodwood looks to be shaping up as a bit of a West Coast championship with the likes of Haskell winner Coil and Santa Anita Handicap winner Game On Dude coming from the Bob Baffert Barn. Twirling Candy, a multiple graded stakes winner that has danced all the marquee dances in Southern California this year is also set to go at it again. Pacific Classic (gr. 1) winner Acclamation, who would be favored if he runs, is also entered Sunday in the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita Sunday. Trainer Don Warren and part owner Bud Johnston are still deciding whether Acclamation will run in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic or the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Although the Goodwood boys have their Horse of the Year aspirations, perhaps the horse running at Santa Anita with the best chance at the 2011 golden Eclipse Award is a filly. Blind Luck has won three consecutive graded stakes this year including the July 16 Delaware Handicap (gr. 1) over nemesis Havre de Grace. (More on her later) Blind Luck trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has elected to keep his accomplished filly closer to home to prepare for the Breeder’s Cup and has also decided to run against fellow females in the Lady’s Secret. Although Hollendorfer has said he never considered the Goodwood, he had earlier thought of running Blind Luck against older males in the Pacific Classic.

Similar circumstances exist in New York where Travers Stakes winner Stay Thirsty is the expected favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Although the race has been hit by the defection of Whitney winner Tizway, there remains and interesting and accomplished group.

Flat Out is now the most popular older horse in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, having won the Suburban (gr. 1) at Belmont Park this summer before finishing second in both the Whitney and Woodward (gr. 1) at Saratoga. There are also two stars from last year’s Triple Crown races making grade 1 comebacks in the Gold Cup. Ice Box, the Nick Zito trainee who won the Florida Derby (gr. 1) and was second in the Kentucky Derby behind winner Super Saver last year; and 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer, are both entered.

Just as in California, however, the leading contender for Horse of the Year in New York, is a 4-year-old filly. Havre de Grace, who defeated the boys in the grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga in her last race, now has four wins from five starts this year, two of which are grade 1. Havre de Grace also takes her victory in the Apple Blossom (over Blind Luck BTW) into the Beldame at Belmont.

If ever there was a horse road warrior or an equine frequent flyer, Cape Blanco could easily fit the bill. Based at trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Europe, the son of Galileo has come to the United States and won the Man O’ War at Belmont and the Arlington Million at Arlington Park near Chicago, two races beyond their grade 1 status in significance.

Saturday Cape Blanco will try for his American hat trick in the Joe Hirsch Memorial, where he should be favored over the five challengers that include solid stakes winners Mission Approved and Dean’s Kitten.

Uncle Mo, the brilliant champion 2-year-old last year who nearly went to the Kentucky Derby as the favorite this year before liver problems sidelined him, also makes the second start of his comeback. Last month, Uncle Mo came just a nose short of winning the King’s Bishop Stakes over eventual winner Caleb’s Posse. Despite missing the Triple Crown and all of the summer derbies, Uncle Mo will take plenty of support into the one mile Kelso, perhaps training for the $1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – although the Breeders’ Cup Classic is still under consideration by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole.

There are more stars to ponder and more races to handicap from Saturday; plenty to keep fans happy and players a playin’.

And to think this is only a precursor…

Travers Winner Will Join Ghosts and Greats

Take every winner of a major 3-year-old race since the second leg of the Triple Crown and throw in the winners of Monmouth Park’s Long Branch and Woodbine’s Victoria Park Stakes, some long shots, and you have the recipe for the 142nd running of the grade 1 Travers Stakes Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course.

Winners of the Preakness (gr. 1), Belmont (gr. 1), Resorts Casino & Hotel Casino Invitational (gr. 1) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) have entered the 1-1/4 mile “Mid-Summer” Derby and the million dollar purse has attracted four non-stakes winners hoping to capitalize on Saratoga’s historic moniker as the “graveyard of favorites.” It was after all, Saratoga that added “upset” to the sports vernacular when a horse by the same name defeated Man o’War in the 1919 Sanford Memorial at Saratoga.

But the Travers is also known for producing champions. In 2009, Summer Bird was the most recent Travers winner to be named champion 3-year-old colt. The first Travers winner to be so honored was Baden-Baden in 1877 with 24 Travers winning champions in between.

Whirlaway (photo) is the only Triple Winner to win the Travers – having done so in 1941 – but eight others have won two legs of the Triple Crown before winning the Travers some 3 months later in their respective years. Point Given (2001), Man o’War (1920), Damascus (’67), Native Dancer (’53) and Duke of Magenta won the Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Thunder Gulch (1995), Shut Out (’42) and Twenty Grand (’31) won the Derby, Belmont and Travers while.

Since no single horse won two legs of the Triple Crown this year, nobody has a chance to join the likes of Whirlaway, Point Given, Man o’War and Damascus on those lists, but there are plenty other historical clubs to join coming out of the Travers winner's circle.

Favorite Stay Thirsty comes into the Travers after winning the Jim Dandy over the same Saratoga track July 30. Arts and Letters was the first horse to win the Travers after winning the 1969 Jim Dandy with seven others having done so since. Since 1964, the Jim Dandy has been the main local prep race for the Travers and was the same path Bernardini, (sire of Stay Thirsty), used to win the 2006 Travers and later, title as champion 3-year-old colt or gelding that year.

Stay Thirsty also broke his maiden last year at Saratoga, while the only other Travers runner with a win over the track is Malibu Glow. At 20-1 in the morning line, Malibu Glow defeated older allowance horses in a 1-1/8 mile allowance race in late July and is among those with upset aspirations.

Stay Thirsty is trained by Todd Pletcher, who is the current leading trainer at this Saratoga meeting and in search of his seventh title at the Spa. Pletcher is also trying for his second Travers victory after winning in 2005 with Flower Ally.

Another nationally prominent trainer trying for his second Travers win is Bob Baffert, trainer of Haskell winner Coil. Baffert won the 2001 Travers with Point Given, who like his son after him, also won the Haskell Invitational. In fact, Point Given was the last of seven horses to win both the Haskell and Travers. Others who have won the two races include Coranado's Quest (1998), Holy Bull ('94), Forty Niner ('88), Wise Times ('86), Wajima ('75) and Holding Pattern in 1974.

So both Stay Thirsty and Coil hope to follow in the footsteps of their sires, both of whom won a graded race before the Travers, the Travers, and the division championship later.

Belmont Stakes winners have had the most success in the Travers with 27 of them coming back to win the Mid-Summer Derby, of which 14 were also named champion 3-year-old colt or gelding. Summer Bird was the last take the Belmont, Travers and championship, having done so in 2009. The first horse to list those three titles among their accomplishments was Duke of Magenta in 1878. The list also includes legends such as Man o’War (1920), Whirlaway (‘41), Native Dancer (’53), Damacus (’67) and Thunder Gulch (’95).

This year, Belmont winner Ruler On Ice (photo winning the Belmont) is hoping to join that list, but he won’t have the genetic history or trainer accomplishments of Stay Thirsty or Coil. Neither Roman Ruler (sire of Ruler On Ice) nor trainer Kelly Breen have a Travers win on their record, but Ruler On Ice remains among the probable winners at 6-1 odds as one of three grade 1 stakes winners in the Travers. Coil and Shackleford are the others.

Shackleford attained his grade 1 status the classic way, taking the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown. But also like Ruler On Ice, Shackleford’s close bloodlines are not speckled with winners of such races as the Travers, Haskell and Belmont – both have worked for their respect this year. Shackleford has been second in the Florida Derby at 68-1, fourth in Kentucky at 23-1 and won the Preakness at 12-1. His only race as the favorite was the Haskell last month when he was second by a neck behind Coil at 3-2 odds.

Shackleford also fights a futile history of Preakness winners in the Travers. Since Duke of Magenta won the Preakness and Travers in 1878, only six others have pulled off the same double. However, every one of them were champions including Man o’War, Whirlaway, Native Dancer, Damascus, Point Given and Bernardini.

It has been a much maligned group, these 3-year-old colts that make up the sophomore class of 2011. Early season long shots dotted the pre-Kentucky Derby landscape among this crop and different horses have won nearly every major race in this division this year.

But after all of that, some survivors still have a chance to step into the company of legends. Others may be looking for the edge brought on in the company of Saratoga ghosts that haunt race favorites at the upstate New York track.

But whether by grade one or grave yard, the winner of this Travers should have a say in the voting for the coveted Eclipse Award for the champion of this division and perhaps more.

Must See Horse Racing This Weekend

The purpose of today’s blog is to give notice. I want everyone to have plenty of time to clear their calendars this weekend. If it’s too late to clear your calendar and you have something planned for either Saturday or Sunday, (and it is not going to the track or your favorite simulcast center), set the DVR to record. If you don’t know how to set the DVR , you have four days to figure it. If you don’t have a DVR, you have four days to get one.

Because it is going to be a very good weekend of thoroughbred horse racing.

Saratoga on the East coast and Del Mar in the West, both feature their marquee races. Saturday, Saratoga hosts the mid-summer Derby in the grade 1 Travers Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1-1/4 miles on the main track. Sunday, Del Mar presents the 21st running of the $1,000,000 Pacific Classic, also at 10 furlongs on the main track but open to older horses.

The Saturday card at Saratoga also includes the grade 1 Foxwoods King’s Bishop Stakes, which looks to see the return of last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male and one-time Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo. The seven furlong King’s Bishop Stakes should be no easy walz for Uncle Mo, however with Jersey Shore Stakes (gr. 2) winner Flashpoint a confirmed foe.

Another one-time Kentucky Derby hopeful after winning the grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park in February, Flashpoint was fourth in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) and 14th in the Preakness (gr. 1) in his only two races around two turns. Winning the six furlong Jersey Shore makes him undefeated in sprint races the subject of much positive talk since trainer Wesley Ward confirmed Flashpoint for the King’s Bishop from his Aqueduct base 12 days ago.

As recent as last week, trainer Bob Baffert was considering the King’s Bishop for his one-time Derby hopeful, The Factor. Instead, Baffert has said he will run The Factor in the $300,000 Pat O’Brien Stakes (gr. 1) at Del Mar Sunday. The seven furlong Pat O’Brien will be The Factor’s first start since undergoing throat surgery last Spring and his first start against older horses. Baffert has won the O’Brien a record four times including the last two with Brujo last year and Zensational the year before.

Still the spotlight will be on the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes Saturday. First run in 1864, the Travers is the last chance for these top 3-year-old colts and geldings to make an impression against their age group before graduating to face older horses in the Fall. Even a impressive effort in the Travers is generally accompanied by some level of success against older horses on the resumes of most sophomore champions.

Stay Thirsty has the home course advantage in the Travers after winning the grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga in his last start. Jim Dandy runner-up Moonshine Mill is also headed to the Travers as is Preakness winner Shackleford, Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) winner Ruler on Ice and Resorts Casino Haskell Invitational winner Coil (photo).

The Pacific Classic has two of the first three finishers from last month’s Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park in winner Game on Dude and third-place finisher Twirling Candy. The 1-1/4-mile Pacific Classic will also help clarify who might represent the West coast in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November but more importantly, may also have historical implications.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has not announced if his champion filly Blind Luck will take on older males in the Pacific Classic, but has the race under consideration. With the lack of any consistent standout horses, colts or geldings this year, Blind Luck could make significant strides toward becoming the third consecutive female Horse of the Year with a grade 1 win over males in the Classic. There has never been three consecutive female Horse of the Year winners and no filly or mare has ever won the Pacific Classic.

There will be much more to come in the final days leading up to these major races as the horses train, trainers decide and entry boxes open and close. After this weekend, a 3-year-old colt may emerge a likely champion and more will be known about older horses on the West coast. The sprint division will clarify with the Pat O’Brien in southern California and the King’s Bishop in New York and we neglected to metion the grade 1 Ballerina at the Spa or grade 2 Del Mar Handicap.

We just want do not want you to miss it.

Deep Florida Derby Has Trainers In The Know

There is no question the Florida Derby (gr. 1) Sunday at Gulfstream Park is the deepest prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands so far this year. And Sandra Bullock is more popular than Jesse James. The race has two horses that are ranked in the top five of most Derby watch lists this Spring, two other top ten candidates and four new comers to the Triple Crown trail including a monkey wrench. The eventual winner is the mystery.

The favorite is Soldat, a good looking son of War Front who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26. Although War Front was a sprinter and Soldat’s grandsire, Rubiano, was a champion sprinter, Soldat has had little trouble winning his two previous starts this year, both at the Florida Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles. Befor the Fountain of Youth, Soldat also won a 9 furlong allowance race in February by more than 10-1/2 lengths.

Soldat has used his speedy genetics to win both races from gate to wire, making one think jockey Alan Garcia might employ the same tactics in the Florida Derby. However, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (photo right) calls the game plan and it is doubtful he wants Soldat to race to the front Sunday. “He does everything right,” McLaughlin said on Televison Games Network. “The only thing I’d like to change is for him to get some dirt in his face. Whether it be in the Florida Derby or in the morning, we might do both. But on the first Saturday in May, you don’t want to be on the lead.”

Soldat has already fulfilled his morning “dirt in the face” requirement, beginning his Mar. 20 five furlong work behind two runners from the McLaughlin stable before accelerating around them to complete the assigned task. The grimy trip didn’t seem to bother Soldat much as he recorded a bullet work in 1:00 3/5, the fastest of 29 five-eighths of a mile works at Palm Meadows that morning. Odds are that McLaughlin wants to fulfill the other “dirt in the face” requirement Sunday.

Regardless of McLaughlin’s strategy, trainer Rick Dutrow looks to have his sights on the early lead in the Florida Derby with his late entrant Flashpoint. Like Soldat, Flashpoint is by a young sire who was successful on the track as a sprinter. His sire Pomeroy won the King’s Bishop and Kelso Handicap, both grade 1 races at seven furlongs in New York. Unlike Soldat, however, Flashpoint has never been further than the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes, a grade 2 race on Feb. 26 he won by seven and a half lengths.

Flashpoint breaks from the outside post in the eight-horse field, but he figures to the first leader in the Florida Derby and perhaps putting McLaughlin at some ease for the moment. Should Soldat also want the lead as his past performances may indicate, that would be the wrench du monkey previously mentioned.

A trainer that will be rooting for Soldat and Flashpoint to battle each early, is two-time Kentucky Derby winning condition Nick Zito, who saddles 2-1 second choice Dialed In. Considered among the future book favorites to win in Kentucky, the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft is a classic late closer. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs coming from last in a 12-horse field and then won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park coming from last, ten lengths off the lead.

Scheduling challenges and a need to expand out to nine furlongs, forced Zito to run Dialed In against older horses in a Mar. 6 optional claiming. A slow pace in that race also presented a challenge for the young closer and jockey Julien Laparoux, but they rallied to finish second to remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Having some difficulty staying on the Derby track is To Honor and Serve who finished a tired looking third behind Soldat In the Fountain of Youth. Coming from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (photo left) somewhat eases those concerns for To Honor and Serve fans, but that does not reduce the necessity of a much improved performance in the Florida Derby in order to stay the Kentucky course.

If the Derby path had somehow narrowed to a straight line down the stretch of Aqueduct’s inner track on March 5, it is uncertain if Stay Thirsty would still be aboard. But the Derby path didn’t constrict and Stay Thirsty remains pointed toward Kentucky.

Although Stay Thirsty won the grade 3 Gotham Stakes that day, he looked less than professional in doing so. That day he broke poorly but jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to eventuall place him into contention. Turning for home, Stay Thirsty veered in without impeding another horse before then changing leads a few times. But his talent endurred and Stay Thirsty drew off to win the Gotham by just over three lengths.

It was the first start of the year for Stay Thirsty, so trainer Todd Pletcher looked at the Gotham with a glass half full attitude - seeing the room for improvement in his young son of Bernadini. He will put blinkers on Stay Thirsty in the Florida Derby to help him focus and seems confident he’ll see a smarter Stay Thirsty this time.

Rounding out the Florida Derby are Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford, all at 20-1 and none of which are stakes winners.

There have been eleven Kentucky Derby winners who ran in the Florida Derby without winning. The most recent of those was Monarchos who took the 2001 Run for the Roses after finishing second in Florida. Before that, both Thunder Gulch (1995) and Go For Gin (’94) won Kentucky Derbies after finishing fourth in their respective Florida Derbies.

Pletcher, McLaughlin, Mott, Pletcher and Zito probably know of a few of those horses. Zito does. He trained Go For Gin. The four trainers also know their horses likely have enough graded earnings to qualify for the big prize at Churchill. And despite the $1 million purse in Florida, the riches and prestige of the Kentucky have no rival in North American horse racing – perhaps even the world.

So a loss Sunday does not present any type of third strike or punch off the proverbial trail to the Kentucky Derby. But the talent in this field in abundant and wide spread – even hidden, perhaps, in one of the three long shots. The light prep races disappeared with the days of February and March and time is eroding the options for change as the first Saturday in May nears.

Still the Florida Derby is not life or death. But a bad race by any of the promising contenders will surely cause less than comfortable illness for the previously hopeful connections. You can bet the four trainers know that too.

Florida Win Is No Requisite For Kentucky Fame

This Sunday, one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) will be run in the grade 1 Florida Derby. Not only does the $1 million purse provide plenty of incentive to those connections needing graded stakes money to qualify their colt for the Run for the Roses, but the 1-1/8 distance, calendar placement and tradition also adds to the races allure.

Run just five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, this Florida Derby looks to have one of the deepest fields the race has offered in some time. Probable starters Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are all among leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with all appearing in Paulick Report’s Vinery LTD Derby Index, a top ten ranking of Kentucky Derby contenders as ranked by 28 turf writers and thoroughbred racing bloggers throughout North America. Soldat is ranked second behind leader Uncle Mo with Dialed In tallying the third most votes. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in the weekly poll.

Although Soldat, with his $510,000 in graded stakes earnings, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby should he make it there, Stay Thirsty ($260,000), To Honor and Serve ($250,000) and Dialed In ($240,000) appear not to need more than a $50,000 fourth-place Florida Derby check that push them near the $300,000 mark believed to safely be enough to stamp a ticket to Louisville, Kentucky. But one can rest assured that the owners, trainers and jockeys in this race are thinking nothing short of the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Florida Derby.

After all, since the Florida Derby was first run in 1953, ten winners have gone to take the Kentucky Derby including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (’06), Monarchos (‘01), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (’90), Swale (’84), Spectacular Bid (’79), Forward Pass (’68), Northern Dancer (’64), Carry Back (’61) and Needles in 1956 (photo above). Of those, however, only Big Brown, Barbaro and Needles went directly from the Florida Derby to Kentucky.

Spectacular Bid, Forward Pass and Northern Dancer (photo left) all won the Bluegrass Stakes between their Florida and Kentucky victories and Tim Tam won the Derby Trial. Swale, Unbridled and Thunder Gulch also went to Lexington for the Blue Grass before the Derby, but finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Keeneland’s Bluegrass.

Monarchos, and Carry Back went to Aqueduct in New York to finish second in the Wood Memorial before going to Kentucky for their post race blanket of roses.

With the quality of the 2011 Florida Derby as high and deep as it is, one might also think a Florida Derby might be a must for Kentucky glory. However, nine Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby but failed to win. Strike The Gold (’91), Cannonade (’74) and Venetian Way (’60) finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Kentucky. Foolish Pleasure (’75) and Iron Liege (’57) were third, while Go For Gin (’94) and Kaui King (’66) were both unplaced in Florida before their historical wins in Kentucky.

With five weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby on May 7, the pressure is surely beginning to mount in the shed rows of those with aspirations of taking the coveted race so there is no need to heap on additional albatross of a must win in Florida Sunday. Florida Derby probables Bowman’s Causeway, Arch Traveler and perhaps Flashpoint need the $600,000 first-place check for the needed graded earnings for Derby consideration. But for Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, the additional burden of a must-win is unnecessary.

That is unlikely to make much difference for their connections, however. Urgency is not a necessary ingredient for determination. And few run horse races to finish second.