TBT Postponed One Day Until Tuesday

The Brock Talk will not be posted today due to circumstances beyond our control. I will post Tuesday, October 18 and resume our regular schedule thereafter.

We apologize for the inconvenience and thank you for reading.

Have a happy and lucky Monday.


Brock Sheridan
Author
The Brock Talk

Breeders' Cup Ladies Class Has Given Racing Great Moments And Great Fillies and Mares

Even though the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic plays a bit of a second-fiddle to the Classic and at times even the Juvenile (gr. 1), it is a race that has given us many memorable moments – some filled with the greatness of some of the most famous female race horses in North American history.

Like most Breeders’ Cup races, the Ladies Classic was first run in 1984 at Hollywood Park. Formerly known as the Breeders’ Cup Distaff until 2008 when it assumed the current name, the Ladies Classic started with a boom.

While the first Breeders’ Cup Classic was missing one of the great icons of that generation when John Henry missed the race due to injury, the first Ladies Classic (Distaff) was filled with filly and mare stars. That year, Distaff favorite Princess Rooney (photo right) came to the Breeders’ Cup with victories in the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park, the Clement Hirsch at Santa Anita and finished her Breeders’ Cup preparation with a win at Keeneland in the Spinster Stakes.

Lining up to face the 7-to-10 favorite was Life’s Magic, the eventual Champion 3-Year-Old Champion Filly that year who had taken the Mother Goose Stakes, Alabama Stakes and Monmouth Oaks; Lucky Lucky Lucky, second to Princess Rooney in the Spinster; and Miss Oceana, who was second to Life’s Magic in the Beldame at Belmont Park among the field of seven.

Princess Rooney would not disappoint her supporters that day, winning by seven with jockey Eddie Delahoussaye seven lengths over Life’s Magic in second and Adored in third. So impressive was Princess Rooney that day, that her final time of 2:02-2/5 was a full second faster than Wild Again’s Breeders’ Cup Classic later that same day over the same 1-1/4 mile distance.

Although Life’s Magic was second in the first Breeders’ Cup, she would come back the next year at Aqueduct and take home her own Breeders’ Cup victory, defeating Lady’s Secret (photo below left and later named Champion Older Filly or Mare in 1985.

In 1986 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Lady’s Secret would return from her runner-up performance the preceding year with a vengeance. But Lady’s Secret began her tear through racing much earlier in the year. That year the dainty filly won 10 of 15 starts, including the Maskette, Beldame and Ruffian for the second consecutive year. She defeated males four times including the Whitney Handicap, which had not been won by a female since Gallorette in 1948. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee would later be named Champion Older Filly or Mare and became only the eighth filly or mare since 1887 to be named Horse of the Year.

It would take only two years before another future Hall of Fame filly would grace the Distaff with her presence – in fact it would be two greats.

Personal Ensign came into the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff undefeated in 12 career starts including wins in the Hemstead Stakes, Shuvee Handicap, Molly Pritchard Handicap, Beldame Stakes (for the second time), Maskette and a victory over males in the Whitney Handicap.

The race featured Winning Colors, who in May had become only the third filly to win the Kentucky Derby.

The two met in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the Kentucky Derby winning filly Winning Colors jumped out to an early lead as always and ran comfortably around the sloppy Churchill Downs track. At the top of the long Churchill Downs streatch, Winning Colors and jockey Gary Stevens started pulling away from a stubborn Goodbye Halo and well on their way to a win. But Personal Ensign had moved into the picture, but was trying to pass Goodbye Halo for second with Winning Colors still keeping her distance from the Goodbye Halo and Personal Ensign, some two lengths behind.

But Personal Ensign began creeping closer toward Winning Colors, but by that time, the finish was insight and time and track appeared to be running out for Personal Ensign and jockey Randy Romero. Driving to catch Winning Colors in apparent vain, the finish line suddenly appeared and the race seemed finished. But just as quickly, Personal Ensign jumped even with Winning Colors in one stride and was a nose ahead the next. Not a fraction of second too soon, Personal Ensign won and would retire with her 13-race undefeated winning streak intact and honors and the Champion Filly or Mare of 1988.

The next two years of the Distaff division belonged to the parrot-mouthed, tongue-hangin’ out Bayakoa, trained by Ron McAnally. In 1989, Bayakoa won the Ruffian, Santa Margarita Invitational, the Apple Blossom, Milady Handicaps and the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The following year was almost a repeat. She won the Santa Maria Handicap then took the Santa Margarita, Milady and Breeders’ Cup Distaff for the second time. Today, she remains the only horse to ever win the Distaff twice.

Two years after McAnally returned with another Argentia-bred in Paseana. In 1992, Paseana (who also had a penchant for running with her tongue hanging out) won the Santa Margarita, Milady, Apple Blossom, Vanity, Santa Maria and San Gorgonia Handicaps. But just before the ’92 Breeders’ Cup, Paseana finished second in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland and many wondered if she would be in top form for the Distaff a month later. Let go with 5-to-2 odds coupled with stable mate Exchange in the Distaff, Paseana stalked pace-setter and favorite Saratoga Dew down the Gulfstream Park backstreatch but passed her with ease just as the field hit the far turn. With ears pricked as if to ask jockey Chris McCarron when to go, Paseana took the Distaff into her own hoofs and began to extend her lead around the turn. By the time they turned for home, Paseana was comfortably in front and went to win by four lengths over Versailles Treaty and be named the Champion Old Mare for the first of two consecutive times.

Ten years later, the star of the Distaff was Azeri after she ran one of the most impressive campaigns for a female Thoroughbred in recent memory. She won the Clement Hirsh, Lady’s Secret Breeders’ Cup, Santa Margarita, Apple Blossom, Milady Breeders’ Cup, Vanity and Vanity before winning the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in romp and be named Champion Older Mare and the second Distaff winner to take Horse of the Year. Immediately after the Distaff, future Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith declared Azeri the best filly he had ever ridden.

That was about to change.

On April 5, 2008 Smith was named by trainer John Shirreffs to ride his filly in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. Based in California, the filly had been ridden by David Flories in her first three starts, all wins. But Flores did not make the trip from Southern California to Hot Springs, Arkansas. Smith, also based in Southern California, had other mounts that weekend at Oaklawn Park and had ridden for Shirreffs many times before, including winning the Kentucky Derby on Giacomo. At the start of the Apple Blossom, the filly quickly fell back to second to last of the six mares and stayed there until the field reached the far turn. She circled the field (just as she had always done), took command in the stretch and won by a four lengths.

Victories in the Milady, Vanity, Clement Hirsch and Lady’s Secret followed before Zenyatta would make her Breeders’ Cup debut in the $2 million Ladies Classic. Breaking last in a field of eight, her winning running style was repeated and for the ninth consecutive time, Zenyatta was in the winners circle of the 2099 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic.

There are certainly other great champions to run in the Ladies Classic and exciting stretch runs and close finishes. But these eight fillies and mares are some of the greatest in the history of American horse racing. All but Zenyatta are in the Hall of Fame and she will get on the first ballot in which she is eligible.
Just as it’s winners are glorified in the halls of racing history, the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic has etched its way into horse racing history with a story that is far from being complete. It is unknown when the Ladies Classic story will come to an end – probably not in my lifetime – but I’m sure anticipating the next chapter set to take place at Churchill Downs Nov. 4.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile: A Breeders' Cup Race Apart

The $2 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for 2-year-old colts and geldings has always separated itself from most of the other Breeders’ Cup races and it has been because of a number of reasons. When the inaugural Breeders’ Cup was held at Hollywood Park in 1984, it was Chief’s Crown that won the first race of the day, the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the first ever Breeders’ Cup race. The Juvenile would act as the Breeders’ Cup lid-lifter for the first three Breeders’ Cups, but was moved later in the card in 1987, due to the race’s popularity with the bettors, television audience and television executives with ratings and perhaps a Kentucky Derby to promote the next year. This year, there will be 15 Breeders’ Cup races at Churchill Downs Nov. 4-5, and the Juvenile is one of seven with a purse of least $2 million.

All Breeders’ Cup races have the riches and the prestige, no doubt. The $5 million Classic and $3 Turf are cornerstone events with international appeal and have the ability to impact racing and breeding world wide. But the Juvenile has that connection to the Kentucky Derby. Yes, it is notable when a Derby winner runs in the Classic and only Sunday Silence in 1989 and Unbridled a year later have won both races in the same year. But we haven’t seen a Kentucky Derby winner win a race since Big Brown won the Monmouth Stakes back in 2008; and Derby winners Animal Kingdom this year and Super Saver last, did not make it to the Classic, so the Classic does not have that attraction every year.

Not to be too romantic, but the Juvenile brings with it every year, Derby dreams with blankets of red roses on a sunny first Saturday in May.

True, only Street Sense (photo above right) in 1996-97 has won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby the following year, but that doesn’t stop the speculation and knee jerking. (For the record: I raise my hand in blogging court; guilty as charged on both of those counts.) But Americans are almost possessive of the Juvenile winner. If a horse wins the Juvenile, we expect him on the Derby trail next year. When Vale of York was retired after one bad start as a 3-year-old in Dubai, we at the very least were disappointed and at the most even agitated.

When trainer Francois Boutin and owners Allen Paulson and Shiek Mohammed al Maktoum took Arazi back to France after his sensational 1993 Juvenile, they were harshly criticized by the American press and fans. And when they prepped him for the Kentucky Derby with one start in the one mile Prix Omnium, a group 2 grass race at Saint-Cloud in France, we scoffed at the training schedule while at the same time making him odds-on favorite at 3-to-10 in the Derby. Then Arazi finished eighth in the Run for the Roses which only accelerated the criticism.

We love the Juvenile too, because it gives us that glimpse into what we vision in our minds as the Kentucky Derby future.

Those future dreams do not have to emanate from the horse that wins the Juvenile either. Kentucky Derby winners Spend A Buck (’85) (photo left) and Alysheba (’87) both finished third in their respective Breeders’ Cup Juveniles the preceding years. Sea Hero, winner of the 1993 Derby, was seventh in the ’92 Breeders’ Cup Juveniles and Mine That Bird won the 2009 Derby after finishing ninth in preceding year’s Juvenile.

Other great horses have been defeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Easy Goer was second behind Is It True in the 1988 Juvenile. Best Pal was sixth behind winner Fly So Free. Afleet Alex was second to Wilko. Lookin at Lucky would have his first of what would be several unlucky races in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, losing to Vale of York by a nose. Last year, Travers winner and Classic contender Stay Thirsty was fifth behind Uncle Mo, also Classic bound next month.

A Juvenile winner in early November is also perfect timing for the stallions that benefit when their get win the Juvenile. With breeding season coming that winter, many mare owners will be impressed by the Juvenile win and the following extra attention the victory gives to the winner’s family.

Three stallions have had great success in producing Juvenile winners and the sires of juvenile winners. Only Kris S., Seattle Slew and Unbridled have two sons each with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile wins. Kris S. sired Brocco (1993) and Action This Day (2003); while Unbridled’s Song (’95) and Anees (’99) are both sons of Unbridled. Seattle Slew is the sire of Juvenile winners Capote (’86) and Vindication (’02).

Unbridled and Seattle Slew also have additional Juvenile winners, each further down their bloodlines. For Unbridled, it is 2008 Juvenile winner Midshipman, a son of Unbridled’s Song, while Seattle Slew has to go through his prolific son A.P. Indy, the sire of Stephen Got Even and grandsire of Vale of York, to get his other Juvenile winner.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, perhaps even more than those who take much richer races later in the day such as the Classic or Turf, has a certain mystique that seems to set it apart from others on the Breeders’ Cup slate. The extra significance can be attributed as much to its intangible connection to the following year’s Kentucky Derby than even the rich purse, grade 1 status or Breeders’ Cup glory that comes with the festive day.

But whether it is deserved or not some 2-year-old colt will be the next great thoroughbred hope for a Kentucky Derby winner and maybe even more.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile A Big Step On Derby Road

It may be difficult to determine when or where the road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) actually begins. Some might say it as early as the first Sunday of May (the day after the Derby). Others might say it starts with the first grade 1 races for 2-year-olds at the summer resorts tracks of Del Mar in Southern California and Saratoga in upstate New York. Others still says the road does not even begin until the potential contenders turn 3-years-old.

I’m of the school that we are in full swing here in early October. Making it even more exciting now, to perhaps understate the obvious, are the next steps to the Derby - the $2 million Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) and $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

There are eight grade 1, open stakes on dirt for 2-year-olds in 2011. Five of them are run prior to the Breeders’ Cup. They are the Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk on the West coast; the Hopeful and Champagne in the East and Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.

Champagne winner Union Rags will likely be the favorite for the Juvenile coming off of his impressive win in New York this past weekend. His final time of 1:35.55 was the third fastest since the Champagne was shortened to one mile from 1-1/16 miles in 2005, but that was not the story of Union Rags Saturday.

The big, good looking son of Dixie Union was the favorite at 6-to-5, undefeated in two starts including a seven and-a-quarter-length victory in the grade 2 Saratoga Special in his last race. Before the race there were if Union Rags could become the next Uncle Mo, the Champion 2-Year-Old colt that won last year’s Champagne. But after the race trainer Michael Matz, who also trained Barbaro, was telling Daily Racing Form's David Grening there were similarities between Union Rags and the undefeated 2006 Derby winner. Matz, also making it clear Union Rags had far to go to be compared to Barbaro, admitted that Union Rags reminded him of Barbaro with his ability to accelerate quickly.

That talent was very much evident in the Champagne when Union Rags and jockey Javier Castellano were bumped hard out of the gate, found themselves boxed-in down the backstretch and even squeezed back going into the far turn. Castellano rallied him again around the turn, but kept behind horses out of the turn a far down the stretch. In what looked almost like a replay of I Want Revenge in the 2009 Wood Memorial, when a slight hole opened with less than a eighth of a mile to the finish, Union Rags shot to the lead and almost instantly left the rest of the field behind.

Second choice Alpha made a nice late run to get second in only his second race, but he was not making up any ground on Union Rags.

Champagne Stakes


Further west, Creative Cause took the Norfolk over Drill in a revenge match after the later won the Del Mar Futurity in a rally while Creative Cause was getting interference from Majestic City from the inside. Eventually Creative Cause was placed second, and Majestic City third. But the son of Giant’s Causeway would have none of that in the Norfolk, winning by 3-1/4 lengths over Drill in second and Ruler of Dubai in third.

Norfolk Stakes


It was Majestic City who had been running interference on Creative Cause in the Del Mar Futurity, and it was Majestic City getting passed in the late stages of the Breeders’ Futurity by eventual winner Dullahan. Dullahan, a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Minethatbird, may be headed to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf coming off of Keeneland’s Polytrack and a third in the grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes on the grass at Saratoga.

Dixiana Breeders' Futurity

Despite Breeders' Cup Riches, Champagne Thoughts Are Still Of Roses

Last Saturday, Belmont Park presented their prestigious Super Saturday which is also annually billed as the big East coast preview to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships – this year to be held at Churchill Downs in Kentucky on Nov. 5-6. Stars

Uncle Mo (photo right), Havre De Grace, Stacelita and Cape Blanco all put in memorable victories as odds-on favorites and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out won as the ever so slight second choice at 7-to-5 odds. And now all are headed for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, except Stacelita; ($1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf [gr. 1]); and Cape Blanco, who has been retired.

While Saturday’s Champagne Stakes (gr. 1) is similar to those races in that it is a preview to the Breeders' Cup, (more specifically the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) for these colts), the Champagne has that extra little kick. It is the same extra quality that makes the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Keeneland’s Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity as captivating as they are. These races are our eyes into the future. Even with the inception of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, the Champagne continues to have that special connection to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1).

First run in 1938, the Breeders’ Futurity is older and quickly had an impact on the Kentucky Derby run seven months later; Johnstown and Whirlaway, the first and third winners of the Breeders’ Futurity, went on to win the 1939 and 1941 Kentucky Derbies respectively. The first Champagne was run in 1946 and Capot became the first Champagne winner to run in the Derby, finishing second to Ponder in the ’49 Run For The Roses. However, Capot would come back and win both the Preakness and Belmont and be one of only a handful of 2-year-olds to be named Horse of the Year.

It would be 1953 before another Champagne winner made it to the Derby, but Fisherman and Flying Fury the year after, would both be also rans in Kentucky. The 1962 Champagne winner Never Bend, came close, finishing second to Chateaugay in the ’63 Derby that also had Candy Spots finishing third and No Robbery fifth. The next year, Champagne champion Roman Brother was fourth to Northern Dancer’s ’64 Derby.

But it would not be until the wild 1970s, that the Champagne Stakes really began to become a bit of Derby crystal ball.

In 1972, Riva Ridge completed the Champagne-Derby double and before the decade was out, Foolish Pleasure (’75), Seattle Slew (’77) (left), and Spectacular Bid (’79) had all done the same. In the 1978 Derby Alydar came up a length and-a-half short from joining the clug and defeating Affirmed. Champagne winners Forty Niner and Easy Goer finished second in consecutive Derbies in 1987-’88; but Sea Hero was able to hit both winners’ circles in the ’92 Champagne and ’93 Derby. Two years later Timber Country became the last to win both races.

Last year, Uncle Mo won the Champagne and was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby for much of the winter. Then a liver ailment was discovered after his first loss in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1), and he missed the Triple Crown.

It is a difficult double to hit, the Champagne-Kentucky double. And the seven months between the two races are a long seven months indeed. Expecting Saturday’s winner to repeat in the Derby is too much. I think we all admit to that. And of course, we have that $1 million Juvenile in three weeks at Churchill to compel us for now. And it is not for us to question the first what surely must be the first thoughts of the winning owner, trainer and jockey tomorrow. They’ll be thinking Kentucky Derby. And so will most of us for that matter.

Goodwood, Jockey Club Gold Cup Winners Fighting Ugly Stats Going Into Classic

Although they are a million dollars in preparation, the Jockey Cup Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) have done far worse than one might expect in seeing their winners repeat in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) . In fact, of the 49 winners of both races during the Breeders' Cup years beginning in 1984 (five horses have won either the Goodwood or Gold Cup twice), only six have come back to win the Classic - three apiece.

What effect that statistic has on 2011 Goodwood winner Game On Dude or this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup champion Flat Out, is a topic for debate. Much like UFOs and ghosts are debatable in the opinion of some. But there have been some other more obvious reasons for these numbers.

The inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic was won by 30-to-1 long shot Wild Again who had made his start previous to the Classic at Bay Meadows - finishing third in a one mile allowance race on grass. Finishing second through disqualification was, Slew o’ Gold, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That year, Lord at War won the Goodwood, and for the first of what would become 13 times; the Goodwood winner would not start in the Classic.

Trained by Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham, Lord at War won his second Goodwood in 1995 and again the Argentine-bred did not go to the Breeders’ Cup. In 1996 Super Diamond became the third consecutive Goodwood winner to skip the Breeders’ Cup.

In 1997 Whittingham won his third Goodwood in four years with Ferdinand and the horse who had given the bald eagle his first Kentucky Derby victory the year before, gave Whittingham his first Breeders’ Cup Classic in his next start.

There would be another 13 years before Tiznow would win both the Goodwood and the Classic in 2000, but only three more years passed before Pleasantly Perfect would be the last one to win both races.

Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup got off to a fast start with Slew o’ Gold, it would be 11 years before Cigar could win both Gold Cup and Classic. During those years, Gold Cup winners Easy Goer (’89) and Pleasant Tap (’92) got close, but like Slew o’ Gold before them finished second in the Classic. Easy Goer lost to his nemesis Sunday Silence while A.P. Indy defeated Pleasant Tap.

After not starting in the Breeders’ Cup after his first win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1996, Skip Away came back the following year to win his second consecutive Gold Cup in New York. This time owner-trainer Sonny Hines sent Skip Away to the Breeders’ Cup and he put in one of the better performance in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, winning by six lengths at Hollywood Park.

Gold Cup winners performed miserably for the next ten years as Bernardini was the only one to make the top three in the Classic, finishing second to Invasor in 2006. The next best performances by Gold Cup winners during that time were Albert the Great in 2000 and Evening Attire in 2002, both of which finished fourth.

Like Skip Away, Curlin was a two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner but a one-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Unlike Skip Away ten years before, Curlin pulled off the Gold Cup/Breeders’ Cup double in 2007, winning the Classic over a quagmire track at a rainy Monmouth Park, but was unable to repeat a year later. Curlin had little trouble winning his second Gold Cup as the odds-on favorite at 2-to-5, but was dull in the Breeders’ Cup over Santa Anita’s artificial main track and finished fourth.

The 6-for-54 statistic may be surprising at first glance, but there are many explanations. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup, the domestic and international nomination of foals was less organized and marketed. Therefore it would have been very expensive for the owners of horses like Lord at War and Crème Fraiche to run in the Breeders’ Cup. In many instances, horses would have to win their respective Breeders’ Cup race in order to come out of the race with a profit. That was a chance many owners were just not willing to take.

There are those winners of Goodwood and Gold Cup that obviously bounced going into the Breeders’ Cup. In 1984 when the Breeders’ Cup first ran, it can easily be argued that the Gold Cup was more prestigious than the Breeders’ Cup. Owners and trainers treated it that way and pointed their horses accordingly. If they came out of the Gold Cup and went to the Classic, fine. But the Gold Cup was the target.

And then there are the more obvious like Aptitude, an easy winner of the 2001 Jockey Club Gold Cup achieving a historically high 123 Beyer Figure at the same time. After the race, trainer Bobby Frankel was immediately concerned about Aptitude bouncing in the Classic, and he was correct. Aptitude finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic weeks later.

There is also the fact the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at 1-1/2 miles until 1999, so Easy Goer was the last Gold Cup winner to try to win the Classic backing up to the 1-1/4 distance. Waquoit, who finished third behind Alysheba in the darkness of an unlit Churchill Downs in 1987; Vandlandingham (’85) and Slew o’Gold all had that challenge as well.

At 1-1/8 miles, the Goodwood set up much better for Classic bound horses, but since the race was first run as the Goodwood Racecourse Stakes as part of an exchange program with Santa Anita and the track in Sussex, England. Its spot on the calendar combined with the distance, the Goodwood morphed into a grade 1 stake by 1997 and its impact on the Classic quickly followed. In 1998 Goodwood winner Silver Charm appeared within reach of victory in the stretch before he drifted out badly and finished in the middle in the track and in second behind Awesome Again.

A year later, Bud Royale took the Goodwood and he too finished second the Classic to 1999 winner Cat Thief. Tiznow used the Goodwood to prepare for both of his Classics wins in 2000-’01, but only won the first Goodwood . In the 2001 Goodwood, Tiznow finished third behind Freedom Crest and Skimming.

Santa Anita also had a cushion track on their main course from 2007-2010 and during that time, Tiago would be the only Goodwood winner to run in the Classic, finishing fifth behind Curlin in that rainy ’07 Classic at Monmouth Park.

This year, Flat Out and Game On Dude will also likely face a considerable onslaught from horses out of other races. Horse of the Year candidate Havre de Grace will once again face the boys in the Classic having already won the Woodward Stakes over her male counterparts at Saratoga this summer. She had a leisurely win the Beldame (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park. Kelso (gr. 2) winner Uncle Mo will also continue his comeback from a mid-season liver ailment that kept him out of the Triple Crown by further graduating into the Classic. Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) winner Tizway, who skipped the Gold Cup because of a fever the week before, is also back on track and training well for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

No doubt many handicappers at the Breeders’ Cup will circle Flat Out and Game On Dude on their programs and bet accordingly. Both after all, won their respective last starts nicely. But if history repeats, or even has a significant influence, the 6-for-54 stat will only change in the right hand column.

Breeders' Cup Picture Comes Into Focus

Three impressive winners of grade 1 races Saturday are heading for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic according to their connections, and the trio will likely make up the top three favorites when they go to the post beneath the twin spires of Churchill Downs. One female superstar is among them while another won’t be going to Kentucky to renew the best rivalry in Thoroughbred racing in recent years. A $3 million showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was highly anticipated Sunday evening, but will not materialize as we know now. And then there was that crazy uncle.

That's how the 2011 Breeders’ Cup, to be run Nov. 5,6 at Churchill Downs, is coming into focus.

The three big winners headed for the Classic are Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out, Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) winner Game On Dude and the filly who won the Beldame (gr. 1) with ease, Havre de Grace.

Flat Out may have taken the lead away from the absent Tizway in the older horse division with a convincing win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over 2010 Belmont (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer and this year's Travers (gr. 1) winner Stay Thirsty. After winning the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont in July, Flat Out finished the summer running second to Tizway in the Whitney and second to the filly Havre de Grace in the Woodward. With neither in the Gold Cup, Flat Out capitalized and provided an emotional victory for midwest journeyman trainer Charles Dickey.

As impressive as Havre de Grace was in New York however, her nemesis Blind Luck was equally puzzling in California Saturday. Before finishing last by 18 lengths behind winner Zazu in the Ladies Secret Stakes (gr. 1), Blind Luck and never finished worse than second in 21 previous races. According to reports as recent as today, trainer and part owner Jerry Hollendorfer has said they have found no problems but Blind Luck will be heading toward a vacation and will miss the Breeders’ Cup. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace have raced against each other six times in the last two years with Blind Luck winning three and Havre de Grace two. In the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last year won by Unrivaled Belle, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace finished second and third respectively as 3-year-olds.

As Jay Privman mentioned in his Blind Luck update today in Daily Racing Form, “With Blind Luck out of the Ladies’ Classic, and Havre de Grace headed to the BC Classic against males, the top two females in the country are both now bypassing that race, leaving 3-year-olds such as Zazu, Beldame runner-up Royal Delta, and Cotillion Stakes winner Plum Pretty among the leading contenders.”

Zazu iz zertainly, no Zenyata, but zhe doez have the zame Jerry and Ann Moss teal and pink colorz and runz with a zimilar, clozing running ztyle.

Many consider Acclamation, with his four consecutive grade 1 victories, a Horse of the Year candidate and the same can almost can be said of Cape Blanco. This weekend Acclamation won the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on the turf for his fifth straight graded stakes win, while Cape Blanco won his third consecutive grade 1 turf stake by taking the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. 1) at Belmont Saturday. Acclamation may still go to the Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of the Turf Classic, but any chance of a showdown between the two was dashed when Anne Marie O’Brien (wife of trainer Aidan O'Brien) tweeted Monday as @aobballydoyle, “Cape Blanco has been retired to stud following an injury he sustained when winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont”.

Uncle Mo fans (led by owner Mike Repole I might add) have certainly been on a roller coaster year in 2011. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Champion Two-Year-Old Male cruised in his first win of the year in an ungraded stake in Florida before expecting to take the Resorts World Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) waltz into the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) as the favorite. But at some point, a liver infliction hit Uncle Mo and he not only finished third in the Wood, but also missed the Derby and much of the year before making a return four months later in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga last month. He finished second, but it was only by a nose to Caleb's Posse and as learned later, with front shoe nearly twisted off in the final sixteenth of a mile.

If some thought that the big return may have drained Uncle Mo, few put money in the mutuel machines to back their belief as Uncle Mo went to the gate as odds on favorite in the Kelso at 6-to-10. Off of a very nice win in the Forego Stakes (gr. 1), Jackson Bend figured to threaten Uncle Mo on paper in the Kelso, and actually tried to do so in the race.

As the short Kelso field raced around the big Belmont Park turn, Uncle Mo lead but Jackson Bend and jockey Corey Nakatani had him in their sights. And as Jackson Bend got closer to Uncle Mo, it seemed he got faster with every stride and passing the leader looked near certain. But as Jackson Ben raced up on the inside of Uncle Mo just as they straightened away for home, John Valenzuela on Uncle Mo would not allow Jackson Bend through along the rail. Suddenly, Uncle Mo was an Italian jail and Jackson Bend was Amanda Knox – trapped and no way to get out.

By the time Nakatani emphatically steered Jackson Bend to the outside to pass, Valenzuela gave an acceleration signal of some type to Uncle Mo and he blasted away from Jackson Bend and won the Kelso by three lengths.

So impressive was the win, that despite receiving free entry fees into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Repole told reporters that Uncle Mo was Classic bound. There he is expected to meet Havre de Grace, Flat Out and Game on Dude.

What was I said about the favorites in the Classic again?