The Brock Talk

Friday, May 15, 2009

Preakness Thought, Comments and Questions

In Post Position order:
1 - Big Drama: Has only been defeated twice in seven career starts. Once in his first race against maidens. Again in his last race by track stewards who disqualified him from first and placed him second for bumping another horse in the stretch.
2 - Mine That Bird: Kentucky Derby winner at 50-1 is now the second choice in the Preakness at 9-2. What a difference a historical stretch run makes. Roswell, NM owners lost thier jockey Borel for this race but get Hall of Famer Mike Smith (also from Roswell) to pilot this one-time Derby UFO. (Insert Close Encounters Tuba here)
3 - Muskat Man: The third place finisher in the Derby and Illinois Derby winner. A good price at 10-1. Ready, aim, and they're off in the Preakness.
4 - Luv Gov: Trained by D. Wayne Lukas who has won the Preakness five times. Longshot named for former New York governor Elliot Spitzer. I'm glad he's in here if for no other reason than that.
5 - Freisan Fire: Derby favorite who took much the worse from his Derby trip. Any kind of clear path here would make him very dangerous - especially at 10-1.
6 - Terrain: Has a mountainous task against this group.
7 - Papa Clem: Another who looks like he could improve in the Preakness after a trouble-laden fourth place finish in the Derby. The winner of the Arkansas Derby is a very popular choice among many horse players.
8 - General Quarters: Even if you throw out his tenth-place finish in Kentucky, he looks to be a notch below some of the best in this race. Outranks Flying Private though.
9 - Pioneerof the Nile - Derby runner-up should be among the leaders heading for home and in contention. Popular trainer Bob Baffert has four Preakness victories and top jockey Garret Gomez is a subtle genius during a race.
10 - Flying Private: Watched 'em all cross the wire as the last place finisher in the Derby. Another Lukas longshot.
11 - Take The Points: Didn't appear to like the artificial racing surface while chasing Pioneerof the Nile at Santa Anita this spring. He may be able to beat the spread after a little vacation and the return to racing on dirt.
12 - Tone It Down: The Preakness often has an apparently over-matched local hero for the Baltimore fans. Sometimes these Maryland runners surprise us with their home track advantage.
13 - Rachel Alexandra: The filly is taking on the boys after she won the Kentucky Oaks by a record 20 lengths. Jockey Calvin Borel chose to ride her over the Derby winner and other Preakness owners tried in vain to keep her out. Look for her to be in the mix early and trying to leave the pack leaving the far turn. Take a close look at her in the paddock and post parade. There may be subtle but stong indications of what's to come.
Selections: 13-5-3


priscilla said...

My money is going to be on the filly. You go girl!

Brock said...

Here's how she can get beat. 1.) She get's caught in some sort of speed dual with Big Drama and goes too fast early. Not likely to happen with Calvin Borel aboard. 2.) Traffic. Again not likely because she likes to be close to the lead. 3.) Far outside post. Not big on post positions although more winners come from the inside. She has the tactical speed and a very calm rider to get comfortable before they get to the turn. 4.) She gets to the paddock and looks around and see's all those big, unfriendly colts and decides maybe that's not for her. This is the key. All possibilities appear to be unlikely.

Anonymous said...

Rachel Alexandra for the win.
I have considered that no horse has
ever won the Preekness from unlucky post 13. I believe she can
do it. I also like Calvin Borel as her jockey.

Anonymous said...

Rachel Alexander & Big Drama .Sounds like a bands name,but will work for my exacta.
I hope Hank doesnt pick them.